We have a great candidate with a great message, where should we focus our campaign efforts?
Basic campaign facts:
45% (or more) of voters will vote for the Democrat candidate no matter what. We know this because Kamala Harris received 48% of the vote in the 2024 Presidential election.
40% of voters will vote for the Republican candidate no matter what. We know this because John McCain received 46% of the vote in the 2008 Presidential election.
Democrats usually vote for Democrat candidates and Republicans usually vote for Republican candidates. These facts apply to general elections, but what about primary elections?
Challengers to incumbents in primary elections face a steep hill. The odds of successfully challenging incumbents are worse than general elections. It is almost impossible to defeat incumbents in the primary elections. Why? The main reason is that incumbents have thousands (or millions) of people who benefit financially from the incumbent being in office. The financial incentives of these "beneficiaries" drives them to the polls on primary election day. The challenger, on the other hand, doesn't have anyone benefitting financially from him. Challengers need to give voters a big enough incentive to vote for them in the primary that will surpass the number of votes from the financially incentivized voters of the incumbent. This is very difficult. Incumbents have been primaried in the past, but it is very rare.
Whom should our campaign target? Independent voters?
No. Independent voters are really just Democrats who need a hug. Karl Rove is an advocate of courting Independent voters, his candidates (John McCain and Mitt Romney) lost by applying this strategy. The truth is that for every vote that a "middling" Republican candidate gets by courting the Independent voters, he loses ten Conservative voters. No time should be wasted on Independent voters.
So whom should a candidate focus on?
There are various groups who can sway an election:
1. One-Issue voters. There are some people who don't usually vote, but they will vote if they feel strongly enough about an issue. A good example of this is Pro-Abortion voters. Democrat Josh Stein won the Governor election in North Carolina in 2024 because his opponent Mark Robinson advocated the use of government power to stop abortions. Democrat Stein won with 54% of the vote in a state that Trump carried in the same year. One-Issue voters were a major factor in Stein's victory. Other examples of One-Issue voters include: People opposed to unabated government spending (eg The Tea Party), people who believe that the system is rigged against them (Donald Trump tapped into this group in the 2016 election), climate activists, and others. Candidates need to cultivate One-Issue voters (when it is realistic) and avoid the ire of One-Issue voters at the same time.
2. People who want to do their own research. Candidates spend millions on reaching voters, but they often spend nothing on voters who are trying to reach them. During election season, TV and radio stations are packed with ads for candidates. Yet candidates' websites are difficult to find on internet searches, and when they are found, they only ask for donations. They provide no real information about the candidate. Candidates' current promotional ratio of 100% spent on reaching voters and 0% spent on voters trying to reach them needs to change if candidates want to earn the votes of people who do their own research. Another necessity to satisfy people who do their own research is the presence of positive online articles about the candidate. When internet users search on a candidate's name, what comes up in the search results? Internet users will judge a candidate favorably if they see positive articles about the candidate. Candidates need to facilitate a positive online presence so they can win the support of voters who are doing their own research.
3. People who want to interact with candidates on Social Media. Social Media is eclipsing TV and radio in popularity because it satisfies the human need for interaction. Humans want to interact with each other and they will view a candidate positively if they can interact with them on Social Media. Sadly, this reality is not acknowledged by most political campaigns. In many campaigns, Social Media is either not acknowledged at all, or else it is at the bottom of the list of priorities. Candidates who acknowledge the importance of Social Media in campaigning have a much better chance of winning their elections. With Social Media, a candidate can make his or her own news. A 30 second video of the candidate speaking at an event can be posted on every Social Media platform. Undecided voters might see the video and decide to vote for the candidate. Social Media works!
What matters?
Political campaigns waste a lot of promotional effort on voters who will either vote for their candidate, or not vote for their candidate, NO MATTER WHAT. Campaigns need to put more promotional effort on voters they have a chance of swaying.
Is there a name for it? Is there a name for optimizing promotional effort based on what will have the biggest impact on voters?
Yes. It is based on Persuasibility Factor. Here is the definition from Search Assist: "The persuasibility factor refers to individual differences in how responsive people are to persuasive communications, which can include various attributes like personality traits and emotional states. Understanding these factors helps in analyzing how and why people change their beliefs or attitudes in response to different influences."
How does Persuasibility Factor affect campaign promotional decisions?
Persuasibility Factor tells us to consider which promotional efforts have the biggest impact on voters. For example, does another TV ad help persuade voters to vote for our candidate? Or should we post a 30 second video of our candidate's most recent event on YouTube? Does another radio ad help persuade voters to vote for our candidate? Or should we optimize our website so it is easily found in internet searches?
A campaign that is conscious of Persuasibility Factor will always be thinking of additional ways that it can reach voters, and additional ways that voters can reach it.
What does Campaign Report Card do?
Campaign Report Card shows a candidate where promotional efforts are being made, and where promotional efforts are lacking. It provides a concise immediate view to help candidates decide where promotional efforts need to be increased. Political campaigns can be incredibly hectic with everyone busy on various promotional tasks. Campaign Report Card shows where the promotional gaps are.